Protocol 9 · PSE9 Copenhagen 2027 · ICML 2026 agent reproduction challenge

Well documented,
rarely picked

Medical machine-learning papers are assumed to be hard to reproduce because their data are restricted and their code is not shared. Across nine venue-years they were the better-documented group on every axis measured. In the challenge they were settled less often anyway. Crowd reproduction does not fail medical papers for lack of materials: it sends them to fewer and less decisive teams, and asks costlier questions.

Frame
CVPR, ICCV, ECCV, ICLR, ICML, NeurIPS · 2025–2026
Labelling
Two blind coders, clinical / life-science, plus an equal random sample of others
Full texts coded
3,278 — 1,568 life-science, 1,710 other
Reproduction evidence
Public verdict snapshot of the ICML 2026 challenge

Scope

What was read

Every block is one venue; its area is the number of full texts coded there. Both coders worked blind on the clinical / life-science label and on an equal random sample of other papers from the same venue-year.

icml: 987 full texts codedICML987494 life-sci · 493 otherneurips: 918 full texts codedNEURIPS918411 life-sci · 507 othericlr: 774 full texts codedICLR774371 life-sci · 403 othercvpr: 215 full texts codedCVPR215108 · 107iccv: 207 full texts codedICCV207103 · 104eccv: 177 full texts codedECCV17781 · 96
3,278full texts coded by blind coders (coder 2 on a random 25%)
+13.1points more code released, life-science minus other
-19.1points less often settled once attempted
-5.6points of that gap left after two factors

Step 1 — on paper

Every documentation axis favours the medical papersprediction reversed

Rate differences, life-science minus other, Mantel–Haenszel over the nine venue-years, with 95% confidence intervals. The protocol pre-registered the opposite direction for all three labelled fields (L9.1–L9.3: life-science papers report open data, release weights and report variance less often). None of those labels was assigned, because each difference came out positive.

0+10+20+30+40Code released3089 coded · gate met+13.1[+9.6, +16.6]Main data openly downloadable1493 coded · gate met+15.0[+10.7, +19.3]Weights released775 coded · gate met+28.6[+21.6, +35.0]Variance reported2641 coded · adjudicated+24.4[+20.7, +27.9]

The same four axes as levels rather than differences: the share of coded papers on each side that met the field, and the count behind it, from the final codes the analysis uses (adjudicated for variance). The difference printed on the right of each axis is the crude one: it is close to, but not the same as, the venue-year–stratified estimate above.

0%25%50%75%100%Code released+13.2life-science59.4%874 of 1,471other46.2%747 of 1,618Main data openly downloadable+16.4life-science83.7%725 of 866other67.3%422 of 627Weights released+29.2life-science48.6%136 of 280other19.4%96 of 495Variance reported+24.2life-science66.4%842 of 1,269other42.1%578 of 1,372

Read it as: nothing here supports the premise that medical papers withhold their materials. Variance did not meet the agreement gate, so coder 2 coded it for every paper and all 1,404 disagreements on variance and compute were adjudicated before these numbers were computed.

Step 2 — in practice

The same papers are settled less oftengap −19 pts

Attempted papers in the ICML 2026 challenge, by whether any team reached a verified or falsified verdict. Permutation p = 0.0005.

0%25%50%75%100%Life-science / medical110 attempted papers46.4%All other papers1,821 attempted papers65.5%gap -19.1 points, 95% CI [-28.4, -9.6]

The same question on the matched set, one square per attempted paper: the 656 coded ICML 2026 papers only, so both groups come from one venue and one leaderboard snapshot. Settled squares are grouped first, so the comparison is the length of the two blocks. Gap -17.0 points, 95% CI [-29.7, -4.4] — the bars above compare the same 110 medical papers against every other attempted paper in the challenge, which is why the two gaps differ.

Life-science / medicalattempted at ICML 202646.4%51 of 110 settledOther papers, same venueattempted at ICML 202663.4%71 of 112 settled
verified or falsifiedno verdict reached

Read it as: being attempted is not the problem and the judge is not the problem — within the same team, medical and other claims are decided about equally often. Something about which teams and which claims is.

Step 3 — where the gap goes

Two factors absorb itCI reaches zero

The full-verification gap, then the same gap adjusted for the first team's settle rate on its other papers, then for that and the claims' check cost. Post-hoc; each reading rule frozen before computing.

-30-25-20-15-10-50+5Full-verification gapmedical minus other, as observed-19.1[-27.3, -10.9]after first team's settle ratewho picked the paper up first-13.0[-20.7, -5.1]after that and claim check costwhat the claims cost to check-5.6[-11.9, +1.4]

Read it as: once you know who picked the paper up and what its claims cost to check, the medical penalty is no longer distinguishable from zero.

Step 4 — the two factors

Weaker first teams, costlier claims

First: how often the team that took a paper first settled its other papers. Then: how the papers' claims distribute over check cost, from two blind coders on 1,083 claims (kappa 0.72).

0%25%50%75%100%Teams that took a medical paper first99 papers · rate on their other papers40.0%Teams that took another paper first1,619 papers · rate on their other papers60.3%difference -20.3 points, 95% CI [-26.0, -14.3] Medical claims110 papersretrain: 202 claims202large_scale: 89 claims89inference_only: 106 claims106analytic: 99 claims99unclear: 17 claims56.7%Other claims110 papersretrain: 162 claims162large_scale: 61 claims61inference_only: 86 claims86analytic: 258 claims258unclear: 3 claims39.1%left of the rule: retraining or large-scale runs
retraininglarge-scale runinference onlyanalyticunclear

Read it as: medical papers went first to teams that settled 40% of what else they touched, against 60% elsewhere, and 56.7% of their claims needed retraining or a large-scale run, against 39.1% (+17.6 points, 95% CI [+9.7, +25.8]).

Step 5 — the caveat on any artifact map

What a paper states barely predicts what a reproducer getskappa 0.13–0.55

Agreement between the coded artifact statement and what the reproduction logbook reports having actually used, on adjudicated pairs.

0.00.20.40.60.81.0Code link → authors' code actually run162 adjudicated pairs0.22Stated data access → data actually obtained89 adjudicated pairs0.13Weights released → weights actually used43 adjudicated pairs0.55NeurIPS checklist item 5 → code released152 papers0.22

Read it as: a declared code link is close to uninformative about whether anyone ran that code. Any figure that paints a stated artifact signal as reproduction evidence is painting the wrong variable — which is why the keyword-selected layer this page used to show was retired.

Provenance

Every number on this page, and the file it comes from

Paths are relative to verdict_audit/readiness/results/, except map_label_check.json (audit/). Regenerate with python tools/build_medical_map.py.

QuantityValueFileKey
Code released, +pts+13.1p9_adversarial.jsonF1.code.coder1_only
Main data open, +pts+15.0p9.jsonlabels.L9.1
Weights released, +pts+28.6p9.jsonlabels.L9.2
Variance reported, +pts+24.4p9.jsonlabels.L9.3
Attempted papers110 / 1,821p9_extended.jsonunits
Matched set, decided46.4% / 63.4%p9.jsonA9_5.cells
Matched-set gap-17.0p9.jsonA9_5.unadjusted
Decided, medical46.4%p9.jsonA9_5.cells.life_science.decided
Decided, other65.5%readiness.jsonR_A3.protocol7_label.cells
Settlement gap-19.1p9_extended.jsonE1.decided.unadjusted
Permutation p0.0005p9_adversarial.jsonF2.permutation.p
Gap after team strength-13.0p9_claims.jsonK3.strength
Gap after both-5.6p9_claims.jsonK3.strength_and_cost
First-team settle rate40.0% / 60.3%p9_extended.jsonE1.first_team_strength.mean
Costly claims56.7% / 39.1%p9_claims.jsonK1.costly
Claims double-coded1,083p9_claims.jsonscore.items
Code link vs code run, kappa0.22p9.jsonA9_4.code_vs_code_used.kappa
Retired keyword layer, kappa0.59map_label_check.jsonmedical_set.kappa